1. Exquisite Tweets from @faisalislam

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    Long read on where we are re Brexit, Parliament, diplomacy, economics, May Corbyn, "Norway in drag", & no No Deal... news.sky.com/story/sky-view…

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    faisalislam

    Faisal Islam

    main points Thread:
    1. Significant shifts over summer in position papers, in attitude to multi-year transition, "indirect" jurisdiction etc

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    Faisal Islam

    2. really interesting thing is that there has been no pushback from Tory Brexiteer MPs on what are a blurring of their red lines at best

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    Faisal Islam

    3. economy - delicate, over 6 months now slowest GDP in EU - corporates informing Gov of activation of no deal contingency plans by year end

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    4. Eg unsolicited letter to top Cabinet minister from British captain of industry imploring Government to stop Brexit for the economy sake

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    5. But GE2017 psephology also changing things -its why Labour gone for SM/CU trans (polls well)..Tories pondering loss of Remainer mid class

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    6. Told of various Tory inquests into what happened during elex - including why CCHQ didnt believe warnings from sitting MPs in Remain seats

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    Faisal Islam

    7. Labour's top team have had doors of business flung open since GE - much more interested in Brexit than their tax plans...

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    8. Eg McDonnell meets with top FTSE 100 chief executives, Labour telling British biz to tell them what they're telling Dexeu on Brexit

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    9. Significant Cabinet hope German election will unlock "business-minded" progress on Brussels negotiations - though not reciprocated yet

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    10. Cabinet minister re "significant progress": "My hunch is it won't happen till Christmas".

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    11. Corbyn now finds himself feted by Europe's left leaders since elex, after being bit of pariah, invited to meet PMs, will tour later

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    12. Now evident weakness in negotiating hand coupled with negotiating time disappearing, limits possibility for bespoke UK Brexit solution

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    Faisal Islam

    13. So certainly for the transition period, difficult to imagine anything other than EEA terms offered... perhaps renamed as something else

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    14. Tory Brexiteers face choice between certainty of some Brexit, or pursue perfect "clean"/hard Brexit and leave it to Commons arithmetic

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    15. Single Market is not a legally recognised term. Internal market is. As is the "European Economic Area". Pedantic semantics will matter

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    16. Public squabbling over divorce bill less important than constructive EU-UK progress & narrowing of gap on citizens rights and governance

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    17. It boils down to the difference between "regulatory outcome equivalence" and supranationally-enforced "harmonisation"...

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    Faisal Islam

    18. And also difference between direct jurisdiction and "quasi-direct" jurisdiction (Efta Ct). Indirect jurisdiction is not a legal concept

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    Faisal Islam

    19. And on those new trade deals - there's a difference between freedom to 1. Negotiate deals, 2. Sign deals and 3. Implement deals

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    20. Expectation in Government that SNP MPs would not vote for another election under Fixed term parliament act (which stays) - helps PM

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    Faisal Islam

    21. "Norway in drag" is a concept I just invented to describe wholesale adoption of large tracts of EEA agreement as end state

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    Faisal Islam

    22. European capitals have been told to watch out for PM's new speech on Brexit later in September

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    Faisal Islam