Long read on where we are re Brexit, Parliament, diplomacy, economics, May Corbyn, "Norway in drag", & no No Deal... news.sky.com/story/sky-view…
main points Thread:
1. Significant shifts over summer in position papers, in attitude to multi-year transition, "indirect" jurisdiction etc
2. really interesting thing is that there has been no pushback from Tory Brexiteer MPs on what are a blurring of their red lines at best
3. economy - delicate, over 6 months now slowest GDP in EU - corporates informing Gov of activation of no deal contingency plans by year end
4. Eg unsolicited letter to top Cabinet minister from British captain of industry imploring Government to stop Brexit for the economy sake
5. But GE2017 psephology also changing things -its why Labour gone for SM/CU trans (polls well)..Tories pondering loss of Remainer mid class
6. Told of various Tory inquests into what happened during elex - including why CCHQ didnt believe warnings from sitting MPs in Remain seats
7. Labour's top team have had doors of business flung open since GE - much more interested in Brexit than their tax plans...
8. Eg McDonnell meets with top FTSE 100 chief executives, Labour telling British biz to tell them what they're telling Dexeu on Brexit
9. Significant Cabinet hope German election will unlock "business-minded" progress on Brussels negotiations - though not reciprocated yet
10. Cabinet minister re "significant progress": "My hunch is it won't happen till Christmas".
11. Corbyn now finds himself feted by Europe's left leaders since elex, after being bit of pariah, invited to meet PMs, will tour later
12. Now evident weakness in negotiating hand coupled with negotiating time disappearing, limits possibility for bespoke UK Brexit solution
13. So certainly for the transition period, difficult to imagine anything other than EEA terms offered... perhaps renamed as something else
14. Tory Brexiteers face choice between certainty of some Brexit, or pursue perfect "clean"/hard Brexit and leave it to Commons arithmetic
15. Single Market is not a legally recognised term. Internal market is. As is the "European Economic Area". Pedantic semantics will matter
16. Public squabbling over divorce bill less important than constructive EU-UK progress & narrowing of gap on citizens rights and governance
17. It boils down to the difference between "regulatory outcome equivalence" and supranationally-enforced "harmonisation"...
18. And also difference between direct jurisdiction and "quasi-direct" jurisdiction (Efta Ct). Indirect jurisdiction is not a legal concept
19. And on those new trade deals - there's a difference between freedom to 1. Negotiate deals, 2. Sign deals and 3. Implement deals
20. Expectation in Government that SNP MPs would not vote for another election under Fixed term parliament act (which stays) - helps PM
21. "Norway in drag" is a concept I just invented to describe wholesale adoption of large tracts of EEA agreement as end state