1. Exquisite Tweets from @APHClarkson

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    1. In moments like the Catalan Crisis we often focus on leaders. But think of all the state and political actors whose support Rajoy needed

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    2. Rajoy would have needed support of his cabinet. Particularly the Deputy Prime Minister, Defence, Interior, Justice and Foreign Affairs

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    3. Rajoy needed clear support for such a move from his Partido Popular MPs in the Cortes. He needed to know they wouldn't topple him over it

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    4. Rajoy needed clear support from the leadership and rank and file of the Guardia Civil and other police drafted into Catalonia.

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    5. Rajoy needed to be sure his course had the support of the intelligence services and police investigators feeding crucial information

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    6. Rajoy needed to be certain the military would stand behind such a risky move. Particularly special forces units held in reserve.

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    7. Rajoy needed to be sure Spanish prosecutors would be willing to charge and pursue all those involved in a referendum deemed illegal

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    8. Rajoy was only able to make his move because of rulings by judges all the way up to the constitutional court

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    9. Rajoy needed Finance Ministry and perhaps even Central Bank officials willing to cut off state financing for Catalonia without resigning

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    10. Rajoy will have consulted with figures hostile to Catalan nationalism in the PSOE, Ciudadanos, perhaps even in Podemos.

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    11. Rajoy did not make his move alone. His actions reflected consensus across the Spanish state and much of Spanish society.

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    12. If this crisis was a leader's mistake it could be solved quickly. But as a product of consensus on the Right it will go on for some time

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    13. It will be interesting to see if the PSOE and Podemos can develop an alternative to Rajoy's posturing in order to deescalate this crisis

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    14. But this crisis isn't over. Particularly if Mossos discipline collapses the Left may find itself forced to completely back Rajoy too.

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    15. Through migration and economic integration Spain is deeply intertwined with Germany and France. The EU won't remain a spectator for long

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson

    Postscript: btw in my book I examined how migration fostered deep ties between German and Spanish political elites
    amazon.co.uk/dp/1785330306/…

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    APHClarkson

    Alexander Clarkson