1. We have a big big problem. The reduction in secondary teachers so far has been masked by a fall in pupils. But pupil numbers are about to shoot up
2. This is a particular acute problem in London where more teachers are leaving and where pupil growth is highest. You know who lives in London? Nearly all the political journalists.
3. This problem is actually mainly driven by a big increase in pupil numbers (though we knew that was coming) but isn't helped by lower retention rates
4. Why are more teachers leaving than people in other public services? Because they're working more hours (during term time) for relatively less money.
5. Teachers, when they do leave, go to jobs that earn less money but have fewer hours (on average). Which suggests the problem is more to do with hours. But if pay went up it may make people feel the extra hours are justified.
6. But there is hope! Teacher satisfaction is actually really high. It's a great job! And lots of people come back to the profession.
7. So this is an entirely solvable problem but we the only way to solve it is to rebalance working hours vs. pay and that's expensive whichever way you do it.