1. Exquisite Tweets from @stevesi, @waltmossberg

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    1/ I’m fascinated by the technical “class” obsession w/ iPads replacing laptops.

    This review of GUI and mouse is what I think some of the review of the iPad will look like in 20 years. Sure I could be wrong.

    I have no illusion of convincing anyone but some thoughts…

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    2/ When the mainframe computer came out, the professional class was convinced that computers could never do what they did.

    That was true. They did different things and much better. Then work changed giving rise to business analysis beyond “accounting”.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    3/ When the first PCs (and word processors) came out, the professional class said they could not replace typewriters.

    A most common example in my first summer job of installing IBM 5150’s was filling out “forms”. PCs could not fill out forms! That is literally what pros did!

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    4/ Then workflows changed and forms became software and the idea of using a Selectric to fill in a form went away. Replaced with streamlined work in a whole new way.

    Repeat for everything using spreadsheets then “slides” (they used to be 35mm film!)

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    5/ Then when GUI came out, the professional class of PC users said it was a baby toy computer. It dumbed down all their work and slowed them down.

    I was a support person they called to tell me the new computers were stupid. I am sure many reading this were on one side of that

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    6/ Every time I read “guardrails” referring to the iPad I think about all the “business users” I showed the first Mac to who told me it was too restrictive and they couldn’t do what they needed to do.

    As if “reveal codes” or installing a TSR was required to be doing work.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    7/ Mac/Windows replaced character mode incredibly quickly even though it would be 10yrs before Windows Word or Excel would “win” a side by side review with character mode equivalents in “feature for feature”.

    Guardrails made it possible for computing to do more by doing less..

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    8/ This is what has already happened with mobile “versus” PCs and why PCs have been replaced.

    We used to use PC tools to do things like place orders, deal with customer service, do banking, budgets, and more. All are phone tasks now for billions. AND more volume and new things.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    9/ Many things ran on mainframes for years after PCs took over.

    Many things ran on DOS for years after Windows “won”.

    Many things ran as Win32/OSX apps even though phones dominate computing.

    In each case, the new way opened up a scenario to an order of magnitude more people.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    10/ The list of things being cited as holding back mobile from “replacing” PCs looks a lot like those lists about PCs, GUI, etc.

    Some are just trying to make a point like plugging a printer into a computer. Printers have been networked/wireless for a decade already.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    11/ USB storage seems to be a hot button. But vast majority of people will never own USB storage (yes I know—Android phones YouTube videos on TF).

    If you don’t have a PC you only create “files” that exist in cloud and will never move it off the cloud to fragile local storage.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    12/ Using SD cards in a camera feels like “filling out forms”. Pros are all transmitting wirelessly already (yes to a PC!) and built-in wifi appeared first on consumer cameras. Plus images are destined to be shared via mobile apps first anyway.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    13/ Many exec assistants, bankers, and landlords filled out paper forms on Selectrics for a long time.

    Many lawyers and accountants used character apps for years.

    So on. In all cases constant improvement and *change* in work made clear new work was done in new ways *alerady*.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    14/ Guardrails and “restrictions” are the reason why one generation can be 10X the previous generation, not a hindrance.

    It is true over time the new takes on characteristics of the old, but in new ways not in obvious ways. PCs became servers, but not mainframes.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    15/ I know this won’t convince anyone but I do think that some historical context is due because 44M iPads a year is a lot before counting phones.

    The number of non-PC users (with jobs even!) >> number of PC people *already*.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    16/ In 20 years, some reviews from today are going to be that review of the mouse and graphical OS. Only this time, the weird part is that the future is already here by the billions.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

    PS/ I know most people have jobs to do (I used to make software for people’s jobs) and can’t just change over night.

    This is more of a plea about recognizing the transition and not dismissing it because it doesn’t happen instantly or by adding the old to the new.

    🔥 on

    🙏

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

  2. 1/ The most important word in your thread is “scenario”. I ordered a new MacBook Air because I still need or prefer a Mac for some scenarios. But my most used, and favorite, computers, are my iPads (a Pro and a mini) and my iPhone X.

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    waltmossberg

    Walt Mossberg

  3. Me too. I have 20 years of quicken data and no way to move. I could easily just use the bank app but will lose all the budget and year-over-year data. That doesn’t make my iPad “not professional”.

    Eventually Quicken will go away or add a cloud import.

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    stevesi

    Steven Sinofsky

  4. 2/ They haven’t replaced the laptop. They’ve replaced almost all the *scenarios* for which I formerly needed the laptop. I’d much rather grab one of my iPads for almost anything I need to do than use the Mac. I expect my new MacBook Air to be my last laptop.

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    waltmossberg

    Walt Mossberg

    3/ I still stand by my first iPad review, from 2010, which talked about how it could take over from the laptop by being better or more convenient at specific common tasks. Not at specs, nor on everything you could do with a laptop eight years ago. allthingsd.com/20100331/apple…

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    waltmossberg

    Walt Mossberg