1. Exquisite Tweets from @ChrisGiles_

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    Today, @NIESRorg put out the first of many economic assessments on the Brexit withdrawal agreement and political declaration.

    ft.com/content/a60a94…

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Today, @UKandEU published its economic assessment of Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

    It puts the range of annual losses between roughly £700 and £2,000 per person Theresa May’s Brexit deal to cost up to £2,000 a year per person ft.com/content/4551e9…

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    It is a very different beast (in terms of modelling) to @NIESRorg yesterday, but comes to very similar estimates of loss twitter.com/chrisgiles_/st…

    Chris Giles @ChrisGiles_
    Today, @NIESRorg put out the first of many economic assessments on the Brexit withdrawal agreement and political declaration.

    ft.com/content/a60a94…

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    The @NIESRorg analysis is largely based on using its big macro model and looking at greater trade frictions.

    @UKandEU take a modular approach, like the government’s cross Whitehall briefing. A general equilibrium trade model + a productivity assumption + fiscal consequences

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    The big and most questionable assumption in the @UKandEU model is the use of an academic study that says trade losses translate into productivity losses.

    Whether this assumption is correct determines the £700 to £2,000 range. The authors are explicit about the uncertainty

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    So you get this sort of picture and no deal (not including short term disruption) is much worse

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    There are 2 conclusions you can take from these studies

    1) The results are similar because different strategies lead to the same conclusion when both assume the Brexit deal increases trade friction.

    2) it would be odd for the government to come to a radically different result

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    Chris Giles