My 30 word #BetterBayes entry:
Use the language of probability to describe what you know and what is uncertain about a situation. Add data. Voilà! Bayes uses this new information to optimally reduce that uncertainty.
Contest: statsandstories.net/betterbayes/ from @statsandstories
Bayesian Analysis Means Counting Possibilities
How compatible are different ideas with data? Count the ways the data could occur, according to each idea. Ideas with more ways to produce the data are more plausible. @statsandstories #BetterBayes
I love this description, but then I would also love to have a straight answer to those pesky "continuoist" who will inevitable ruin the party by asking "So what about continuous probability? Have you heard about measure theory?" . Is there a way to gracefully dismiss them?
"Die ganzen Zahlen hat der liebe Gott gemacht, alles andere ist Menschenwerk!"
But seriously, I don't dismiss. Counting in continuous spaces is tricky, no way out of that. No unique construction, cf non-standard analysis.
Anyway, metaphors have limits.
Short answer: No, truth is for philosophers.
Less short answer: Ideas need initial weights, just like in every other paradigm. Bayes allows those initial weights to differ. But it is still just counting.