1. Exquisite Tweets from @TomHRaines

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    Some thoughts about what a #Trump presidency means for UK foreign policy...

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    TomHRaines

    Tom Raines

    1. Twin poles of UK foreign policy for 40 years have been special r'ship w Atlanticist US and active membership of EU. Both in tatters.

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    Tom Raines

    2. If UK foreign policy has a strategic purpose it is building rules based int'l order. Trump diametrically opposed: trade, climate, Russia

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    Tom Raines

    3. In post war history UK has never had to manage a US which is actively undermining its main international goals.

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    Tom Raines

    4. This is more significant than past splits over e.g. Falklands. The two governments will no longer share a world view.

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    Tom Raines

    5. Uncomfortable but UK must stay close to Trump admin. For influence + concerns of close ally may provide cover to alter course eg on Iran

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    6.Temptation for gov to publicly criticise Trump should be resisted (for now) Better to be ally he listens to than join critics he’ll ignore

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    Tom Raines

    7. Geopolitical context for Brexit completely changed. Will still happen. But imperative to do so in way that doesn't further fracture West

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    Tom Raines

    8. Trump will also be less useful as an ally than Clinton in negotiating Brexit.

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    Tom Raines

    9. Clinton admin brings credibility, could have pressured EU to give UK good/orderly deal, avoid splits in West. Not clear Trump cares.

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    Tom Raines

    10. Even more essential now that UK and EU find a new MO for cooperation on foreign policy as UK leaves CSFP structures.

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    Tom Raines

    11. If US cannot lead NATO, Britain France and Germany must try to fill the vacuum. European unity essential.

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    Tom Raines

    12. This will create pressure for UK gov to raise defence budget, and pressure European NATO to do same. Tricky for UK given fiscal outlook.

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    Tom Raines

    13. Ambitions for EU to be serious global player have generally rung hollow. If this can’t change that, what could?

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    Tom Raines

    14. Trump exceptionally bad news for managing climate change, UK goal and one of few multilateral (semi) success stories of recent years

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    Tom Raines

    15. If Le Pen wins in France, then the EU may unravel and all bets are off.

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    Tom Raines