1. Exquisite Tweets from @JeremyCliffe

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    May gets that leaving SM will come at a price. She just thinks #EUref showed voters willing to pay it to end FoM. theguardian.com/politics/2016/…

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    JeremyCliffe

    Jeremy Cliffe

    Her evidence for this? The referendum was dominated by immigration. Leavers say it motivated their vote. Even most Remainers want it cut.

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    JeremyCliffe

    Jeremy Cliffe

    All of which is right. But none of it supports interpretation of #EUref as endorsement for a less-prosperity-for-lower immigration exchange.

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    JeremyCliffe

    Jeremy Cliffe

    In August, eg, YouGov found 62% would prefer no cut in income & current EU immigration to ANY less-income-for-lower immigration trade.

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    JeremyCliffe

    Jeremy Cliffe

    Also: this poll from last week. 48% want no/soft Brexit. 39% want hard Brexit, ie are willing to risk economic hit for an end to FoM.

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    JeremyCliffe

    Jeremy Cliffe

    There are counter-arguments, eg people more protective of past gains than future ones. And hard Brexit was always more likely than soft.

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    JeremyCliffe

    Jeremy Cliffe

    But at the v least: in her speech today May is making transformative call on the UK's future based on a giant & v questionable assumption.

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    JeremyCliffe

    Jeremy Cliffe