1. Exquisite Tweets from @robfordmancs

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    I'm wondering if part of May's hard Brexit calculations reflect a gamble based on diffs in how public will attribute responsibility 1/?

    Stephen Bush @
    This is a very plausible account of why Ed Miliband won the 2015 election, too.

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford

    2/? Seems v likely May believes voters will blame her & govt if Brexit does not reduce imm. Will be concl of her long HO tenure

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford

    She may think blame for any economic disruption will be easier to divert/shake off. Effects diffuse, complicated, many spread over yrs

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford

    3/?This might or might not be right. Voters clearly do hold govts to account for current econ conds, so if "hard Brexit" triggered recession

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford

    May would have major problem. If it triggered a slow puncture style gradual loss of investment, relative position, maybe not.

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford

    Either way, gamble may be "Voters will definitely blame me if I keep FoM to stay in single mkt. There's good change they *won't* blame me...

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford

    for the disruptions of leaving single mkt". Gamble is between definite political hit and possible political hit.

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford

    Lots of unknowns of course - which political hit would be bigger, which voters would move, and when, etc etc. But can see why a certain loss

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford

    was not an attractive option. And EU insistence on 4 freedoms left staying in single mkt delivering a certain political hit at some pt.

    Reply Retweet Like

    robfordmancs

    Rob Ford