I'm wondering if part of May's hard Brexit calculations reflect a gamble based on diffs in how public will attribute responsibility 1/?
2/? Seems v likely May believes voters will blame her & govt if Brexit does not reduce imm. Will be concl of her long HO tenure
She may think blame for any economic disruption will be easier to divert/shake off. Effects diffuse, complicated, many spread over yrs
3/?This might or might not be right. Voters clearly do hold govts to account for current econ conds, so if "hard Brexit" triggered recession
May would have major problem. If it triggered a slow puncture style gradual loss of investment, relative position, maybe not.
Either way, gamble may be "Voters will definitely blame me if I keep FoM to stay in single mkt. There's good change they *won't* blame me...
for the disruptions of leaving single mkt". Gamble is between definite political hit and possible political hit.
Lots of unknowns of course - which political hit would be bigger, which voters would move, and when, etc etc. But can see why a certain loss