1. Exquisite Tweets from @davidallengreen

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    1. Some thoughts on the May-Juncker dinner details, as set out in this thread: twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/s…

    Jeremy Cliffe @
    Today's FAZ report on May's disastrous dinner with Juncker - briefed by senior Commission sources - is absolutely damning.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    2. Some are concerned at the fact of the leak - but the leak is only damaging because of the content.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    3. Had the leak been about how briefed May and Davis were, then the leak would be dull reading.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    4. Such a leak was always likely, so May either was not advised that this would happen or ignored such advice.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    5. Those who suggest May deliberately intended this leak are, in my view, fanciful. May likes secrecy and control.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    6. Yes, the leak has been spun. The worry is that, even after due account made of spin, the details remain worrying.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    7. So going through the detail of the thread.

    Tweet (3) - disrupting EU business -will not be simple for May, if this is a serious threat.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    8. The whole scheme of the negotiations - guidelines, TF50 team, Barnier - is to insulate and separate Brexit from other issues.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    9. This would not stop disruptive attempt - but it has no practical knock-on effect. Process insulated from UK (and other) undue influence.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    10. Tweets (5 & 6) - Juncker is right. Expats issue complicated re ongoing rights on health, social security, non-discrimination.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    11. Not just residency. Even if UK wins on every point, still a lot to negotiate in detail. Not one meeting's work.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    12. On tweet (8), May wants confidentiality. No surprise. But that is not going to happen, either officially or otherwise. Leaks.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    13. This is a concern for UK, as May has no experience (or taste) for open negotiations. Her Home Office/security background unhelpful here.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    14. Also unrealistic, as tweet (9) explains. Role of other bodies. This suggests May/UK do not grasp the complex process. Not bilateral.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    15. On (11) Juncker saying UK will be treated as third state: this been open EU position since just after referendum result.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    16. The reported surprise of May at this (12) - if true - is telling. Again, suggests no grasp of what is going to happen.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    17. The JHA (justice home affairs) point at (13) is revealing. Such detail unlikely to be spin/false. Very much a May thing.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    18. May's experience at Home Office untypical of EU business. But she thinks the Home Office approach will work generally.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    19. For more on why JHA is a misleading precedent for EU deals, see @StewartWood at medium.com/@stewartwood68…

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    20. In essence, UK can get away with cherry picking on JHA as EU member. Not same as with Single Market as a third (ex EU) state.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    21. So tweets (14 & 15) bang on. So Juncker at (16) plausible. Confidentiality and JHA points likely to be from May and showed no grasp.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    22. And now we come to money - tweets (17 to 20). Of course, this part should be taken with grains of salt. EU has interest opposite to UK.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    23. But what is striking - and disturbing - here are the two arguments attributed to May and Davis, not that UK wants to pay little/nothing.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    24. The 'not in treaties' line of May at (17) disregards the various heads of liability set out in the EC guidelines, not just budget.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    25. Each of these area will cause a a mess/shortfall/real problem. Each needs to be addressed in talks, even if UK prevails.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    26. To resort to the 'not in treaties' line indicates there is no grasp of the range of financial issues as set out in the guidelines.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    28. The argument of Davis (19 & 20) that EU could not force a payment again shows practical financial identified not being take seriously.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    29. What is the cause of concern is not that May/UK and Juncker/EU disagree but, frankly, how pathetic and ill-briefed the UK points are.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    30. The detail of these weak points cannot be dismissed as spin. They could only have been made there and then by May/Davis, not invented.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    31. What the leaks reveal is not that UK/EU disagree, but how far the UK are away from grasping the process and the issues to be addressed.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    32. And the process and the issues need to be addressed and understood, even if UK/EU end up disagreeing and/or compromising.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    33. If UK has no grasp of process or the issues, then Juncker at (25) must be right: a real risk of talks collapsing.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen

    34. Even when you discount leaks for spin and bias, details remain starkly worrying. UK not (yet) prepared for these Brexit talks.

    /ends.

    Reply Retweet Like

    davidallengreen

    davidallengreen