1. Exquisite Tweets from @afneil, @ChrisGiles_

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    Now that Q4's very weak growth figures are in we'll no doubt hear more about being slowest economy in G7. Here are prelim. stats for 2018 growth:
    US 3%
    Canada 2.1%
    UK 1.4%
    Germany 1.1%
    France 0.9%
    Italy 0.1%
    Japan 0%
    Lesson: H2 2018 saw SERIOUS slowdown outside N America

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    afneil

    Andrew Neil

  2. I've been spammed so often in the past day with this silly tweet from @afneil

    The tweet is riddled with errors, comparing data with stuff which does not exist, and apples with pears

    Shockingly poor economics from Andrew, but let me explain

    1/

    twitter.com/afneil/status/…

    Andrew Neil @
    Now that Q4's very weak growth figures are in we'll no doubt hear more about being slowest economy in G7. Here are prelim. stats for 2018 growth:
    US 3%
    Canada 2.1%
    UK 1.4%
    Germany 1.1%
    France 0.9%
    Italy 0.1%
    Japan 0%
    Lesson: H2 2018 saw SERIOUS slowdown outside N America

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Let's first take the many countries on the G7 list for which data does not even exist yet, so any comparison cannot be made without literally making it up.

    2/

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Here is the US website. Surely @afneil remembers there was a government shutdown and that has affected GDP data release timing.

    All he had to do was check the Bureau of Economic Analysis website - it's written on the home page
    bea.gov

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Outside US, not much more effort would direct him to the Japanese official website which also has not published its Q4 data yet - of course that is necessary for even "prelim stats"

    They're not out yet either (coming Thurs)

    esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou…

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    How about Canada?

    No, they're not published yet either. Only third quarter on Statistics Canada website (Canada always comes last, so this should be no surprise)

    statcan.gc.ca/eng/start

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

  3. Please don't be so patronising. It's unbecoming as well as irritating. And it doesn't change the fact that US growth 2018 will be, give or take a decimal point, circa 3%, fastest in G7.

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    afneil

    Andrew Neil

  4. What about Germany?

    1.1% @afneil says. Wrong.

    The 2018 figure is 1.5% as again the homepage of the DStatis website shows
    destatis.de/EN/Homepage.ht…

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    And France - this is where we get into apples and pears. The equivalent figure to the UK 1.4% in France is - you guessed it - higher at 1.5% as the Insee website also shows clearly insee.fr/en/statistique…

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

  5. If you take what's already published plus consensus estimates for Q4 you get what I tweeted (prelim stats - estimates would have been better). None of this "know it all" stuff you're posting will materially affect the table I tweeted. Get off your high horse and take a wager ...

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    afneil

    Andrew Neil

  6. Hooray for Italy - This is the one comparison Andrew got right as is clear from the iStat website

    istat.it/en/archive/GDP

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Now @afneil might think a strike rate of one in six is sufficiently accurate for a senior BBC journalist.

    I happen to disagree

    ENDS/

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Andrew - the numbers you used for Germany and France have been published and yours were wrong.

    Since you have been shown your errors and are not backing down, it appears that you are now lying rather than just mistaken

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    CORRECTION

    Friends pointed me to an error in this thread, which I missed due to my feeble Italian skills.

    Preliminary estimate of Italian growth in 2018 was 1.0% not 0.1%.

    I apologise for this error.

    It means @afneil got all six comparisons wrong
    istat.it/it/archivio/22…

    Chris Giles @
    I've been spammed so often in the past day with this silly tweet from @afneil

    The tweet is riddled with errors, comparing data with stuff which does not exist, and apples with pears

    Shockingly poor economics from Andrew, but let me explain

    1/

    twitter.com/afneil/status/…

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles