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    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    Some random thoughts on May's statement.

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    Lawrence Freedman

    1) It really would help if she took questions. It would save a lot of energy as twitter gets deep into theorising about her real intentions.

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    Lawrence Freedman

    2) The unequivocal anti 'no deal' statement at the start is significant. Suggests she has been convinced by security chiefs and Treasury that it really would be catastrophic.

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    LawDavF

    Lawrence Freedman

    3) Last throw of dice to get WA passed without long extension. Logic of softer Brexit with Labour there since 2017 election and certainly since ERG defections. Note if there is a deal at any point, even after crash out, will still be based on WA.

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    LawDavF

    Lawrence Freedman

    4) I don't she is going to be asking EU for extension to 22 May for leisurely discussions with Corbyn. This has to happen very quickly (which makes exercise bit ridiculous given importance of the issues).
    .

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    Lawrence Freedman

    5) Not sure how EU will respond to request to amend Political Declaration (which is what this is all about). This will still involve a negotiation and there is really no time for that before 10 April.

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    LawDavF

    Lawrence Freedman

    6) Most that can expect maybe joint statement from May and Corbyn urging passage of WA and with agreed objectives of PD.
    That will be a very hard sell, for different reasons, for both parties. So long as WA passes EU can cope.

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    Lawrence Freedman

    7) ERG types furious with May (but logic of situation they created). Can't judge Labour mood. Corbyn will need to get lots on workers rights and CU to compensate for no referendum.

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    LawDavF

    Lawrence Freedman

    8) So entirely possible this exercise will fail. As May-Corbyn discussions will overlap with CU type proposals for indicative vote my guess is if this effort is failing by Monday only option left is long extension and referendum,

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    LawDavF

    Lawrence Freedman

    LawDavF

    Lawrence Freedman