NEW: we analysed the Labour Force Survey to find out which regions & industries will be most exposed by UK's new immigration points system
London will be especially hard hit, in particular its accommodation & food sector
1/ Different regions are exposed for different reasons.
Many of London’s EU workers are in well-paid & skilled roles that would get a visa under the new scheme, but EU workers are such a large share of London’s workforce that the low-skilled portion is still very significant.
2) By comparison, EU workers make up a much smaller share of the East Midlands’s workforce than London’s, but they’re overwhelmingly in lower-skilled and lower-paid jobs.
Almost 90% of jobs filled by EU workers in the region would not hit the skill or pay thresholds for a visa.
3) There’s also a big difference between inner & outer London.
Inner London: only part of the country where more than half of EU workers are in jobs sufficiently skilled & paid to get a visa.
Outer London: EU workers are in lower grade jobs. 75% of them would be ineligible.
4) We can also see which industries within each region are the most exposed:
London’s hospitality sector is especially vulnerable. 1 in 3 workers in London’s hotels, restaurants & cafés are EU nationals who would not get a visa if applying for their job under the new system.
5) The East Midlands’ distribution sector would also suffer.
Around 1 in 5 jobs in transport & storage are held by EU nationals who not be eligible.
Likewise 1 in 7 jobs in its manufacturing sector.
6) How we did this analysis:
• We took the last four Qs of the LFS, and cross-referenced it against the new salary and skill thresholds, using this detailed list of jobs’ skill levels (gov.uk/guidance/immig…), and the shortage occupation list (gov.uk/guidance/immig…)
7) That allowed us to calculate, at a very precise level, the numbers of people in each region & industry in jobs whose skill-level & pay would not meet the new criteria for a visa.
Hugely indebted to @MarleyAMorris at IPPR who patiently fielded my many methodology questions 🤓
8) This is a significant milestone for us.
Original economic analysis on a specialist dataset, on newsroom deadlines. These numbers don’t exist in any ONS publication: we calculated them from scratch.
Gives us far more power to test government proposals than we’d otherwise have