The team whose modelling estimates advised Cobra are presenting their modelling. They modelled controlled spread and realised 250,000 would die. Now advise stronger intervention to suppress - but no idea how long it will need to be in place. #coronavirusuk
Strengthening of controls came after modellers realised NHS simply couldn't cope with current spread - and quarter million would die.
"We will be in quite different world for year or more"
Neil Ferguson - Imperial.
There is no end to major measures until we get vaccine.
"Closing schools would have some effect at reducing transmission. Closing schools on its own will have a significant effect on healthcare capacity.
If I was to guess, it is quite likely to happen"
"The aim now is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but put the epidemic in reverse. Hopefully there will be tens of thousands of deaths. Maybe just a few thousand."
"The only exit strategy is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology."
We are going to be in lockdown for quite some time.
More from Azra Ghani, Imperial
"The trade off is, do we accept that there could be deaths now? Or do we try and push things out to the future in the hope that something else will come along? We think the latter is the right way to do it."
Some caveats, since this has gone viral + I want to be fair. 1. Imperial team were prominent modellers advising govt, but there are others. We *do not* know if they have been saying this longer behind closed doors.
2. I truncated Azra Ghani's quote (was typing in press conf). Full quote:
Under strategies we were pursuing, we were expecting a degree of herd immunity to build up. If we now realise it's not possible to cope with that in current health system...
...and it may not be acceptable in terms of the numbers, then we need to try and reduce transmission
This is key graph. It shows impact under different forms of trying to flatten the curve. You may struggle to spot the key line. It's the very low red one at the bottom. If it is crossed, the NHS is in trouble.