1. Exquisite Tweets from @whippletom

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    The team whose modelling estimates advised Cobra are presenting their modelling. They modelled controlled spread and realised 250,000 would die. Now advise stronger intervention to suppress - but no idea how long it will need to be in place. #coronavirusuk

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    Updates came after seeing Italy - and proportion of patients in ICU

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    Strengthening of controls came after modellers realised NHS simply couldn't cope with current spread - and quarter million would die.

    Tom Whipple @
    The team whose modelling estimates advised Cobra are presenting their modelling. They modelled controlled spread and realised 250,000 would die. Now advise stronger intervention to suppress - but no idea how long it will need to be in place. #coronavirusuk

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    "We will be in quite different world for year or more"

    Neil Ferguson - Imperial.

    There is no end to major measures until we get vaccine.

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    Tom Whipple

    "The idea of controlling a virus like this while having a vaguely functioning society has put us in uncharted territory."

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

  2. Missing tweet: 1239622847582081025

  3. "Closing schools would have some effect at reducing transmission. Closing schools on its own will have a significant effect on healthcare capacity.

    If I was to guess, it is quite likely to happen"

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    Tom Whipple

    "The aim now is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but put the epidemic in reverse. Hopefully there will be tens of thousands of deaths. Maybe just a few thousand."

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    Neil Ferguson:

    "The only exit strategy is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology."

    We are going to be in lockdown for quite some time.

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    More from Azra Ghani, Imperial

    "The trade off is, do we accept that there could be deaths now? Or do we try and push things out to the future in the hope that something else will come along? We think the latter is the right way to do it."

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    I have never been in a press conference like it.

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    Some caveats, since this has gone viral + I want to be fair. 1. Imperial team were prominent modellers advising govt, but there are others. We *do not* know if they have been saying this longer behind closed doors.

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    2. I truncated Azra Ghani's quote (was typing in press conf). Full quote:
    Under strategies we were pursuing, we were expecting a degree of herd immunity to build up. If we now realise it's not possible to cope with that in current health system...

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    ...and it may not be acceptable in terms of the numbers, then we need to try and reduce transmission

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    This is key graph. It shows impact under different forms of trying to flatten the curve. You may struggle to spot the key line. It's the very low red one at the bottom. If it is crossed, the NHS is in trouble.

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    Tom Whipple

    To get under the red line requires extreme social distancing- the new policy.

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple

    This is zoomed in version, showing social distancing.

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    whippletom

    Tom Whipple