1. Exquisite Tweets from @ChrisGiles_

    PreoccupationsCollected by Preoccupations

    A simple statistical analysis of offical data suggests there have been 6,000 coronavirus deaths in English & Wales care homes to date....

    ... not 217

    How so?

    Read on

    ft.com/content/9d6b46…

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Looking at death registrations. These have gone up :
    - 54% in hospitals in most recent week (almost all accounted for by coronavirus on death certificates)
    - 40% at home (nothing on certificates)
    - 50% in care homes (again nothing)

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Everyone accepts these sorts of increases are unusual and are likely predominantly to have a common cause.

    coronavirus.

    With @Candesic we looked at the whole period of the pandemic.
    Excess deaths in care homes above normal = 1,900
    Attributed to coronavirus - 217

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    These figures are two weeks old. Death rates in hospitals have gone up a little since 3 April and stayed at a high level.

    So with conservative assumptions, (ie that coronavirus continued in care homes as in hospitals) roughly 6,000 will have died by today

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    Sadly, the same is likely to be true for people dying at home - which has also surged without reference on death certificates.

    Suggests the daily deaths number announced by @DHSCgovuk (today 14,576) likely to be roughly half the true total

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles

    This will all become clear as deaths are published every Tuesday and the excess is clear, but the patterns are strong enough to come to these difficult conclusions.

    As @MattHancock said today he had a "high degree of confidence" the currently reported figures are much too low

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    ChrisGiles_

    Chris Giles